Since the beginning of this year, the popularity of the new energy vehicle market has exceeded expectations. According to comprehensive data, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles in the first ten months exceeded 200,000 and 170,000 respectively. So much so that Zheshang Securities, in its recently released research report, set the sales target of new energy vehicles in 2015 at 330,000 units, an increase of 32% from the previous forecast. According to industry estimates, there should be no pressure to achieve sales of 500,000 new energy vehicles by next year.
my country surpassed the United States in just two years and became the world's largest new energy vehicle market. According to the national plan, by 2020, the number of new energy vehicles will reach 5 million. In addition to data, the use of new energy vehicles is also constantly breaking through, and new business models are emerging. However, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Federation, still believes that: from a calm point of view, the advantages of the domestic new energy vehicle industry are partial, and there is still a certain gap between the overall situation and overseas mainstream car companies.
Prior to this, Wan Gang, vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and Minister of Science and Technology, pointed out at the 2014 Tianjin TEDA Automobile Forum that there is a significant gap in technology between my country and foreign countries in terms of new energy vehicles. For example, in terms of battery technology, my country's single battery technology has made some breakthroughs, but there is still a lot of room for improvement in the system integration and production consistency of large batteries; there is also great room for improvement in the industrialization of motor drive control systems and fuel power cells. To further accelerate research and development.
And Liu Xinwen, general manager of Chery New Energy Vehicle Technology Co., Ltd., also said at a seminar on my country's new energy vehicle policy and market that the lack of core components is the biggest shortcoming in the development of my country's new energy vehicles. The weakness of the new energy auto parts industry has brought uncertainties to the development of the new energy auto industry.
Power lithium batteries are a very critical case. From last year to this year, domestic new energy vehicles have been in short supply. The most critical constraint is the insufficient supply of power lithium batteries. Important domestic passenger vehicle manufacturers are willing to use foreign brand batteries such as Samsung and LG when choosing batteries, because they have more advantages than domestic batteries in terms of quality and consistency. According to the reporter's understanding, domestic brands account for only about 40% of the power lithium batteries for passenger cars.Please check:https://www.aimeno.com/lithium-battery-pack/191.html
Slow charging and poor battery life are another factor restricting consumers' acceptance of electric vehicles. Anger KarstenEngel, President and CEO of BMW Group Greater China, believes that only when battery technology is further developed to achieve a cruising range of 300-400 kilometers and shorten the charging time, electric vehicles will really be popularized.
According to the previous domestic lithium iron phosphate battery route, to achieve the above cruising range, a large number of batteries must be loaded in the car, which will not only affect the loading efficiency of the vehicle, but also affect its power. And TSLA, which was once all the rage in the world, chose ternary batteries from the very beginning. Compared with lithium iron phosphate, ternary lithium batteries have high energy density and strong battery life. Wang Binggang, the leader of the supervision and consulting expert group for the 863 plan of the Ministry of Science and Technology, has publicly stated that the development of lithium iron phosphate batteries has reached a bottleneck period, and ternary lithium batteries are the historical trend of the development of new energy vehicle power lithium batteries. Domestic automakers such as Jianghuai, Chery, and BAIC have keenly captured this shift and have begun to try ternary lithium batteries.
On the battery route, although domestic car companies have changed their thinking, from the perspective of manufacturing, it will still take a long time for domestic battery brands to replace foreign capital and become suppliers of mainstream car companies.
In addition to technology, from an economic point of view, domestic new energy vehicles are relatively cost-effective compared with traditional vehicles, and still do not have an advantage compared with foreign mainstream products. The price of a Nissan Leaf in the United States is 180,000 yuan, which is less than double the price difference with traditional fuel vehicles. In China, the price difference between pure electric vehicles with a battery life of more than 200km and fuel vehicles is about 2 times. New energy vehicles are less economical.
Therefore, it can be seen that the current domestic sales of new energy vehicles are basically low-end products with a price of 150,000 yuan or less. In the high-end market of 300,000 yuan or more, joint ventures and foreign brands are planning to Divide the market cake. In terms of purchase motivation, in countries such as the United States, the driving factors for purchasing new energy vehicles are mainly market-oriented factors, such as the level of oil prices, while my country relies entirely on policy-driven factors.
According to industry insiders, whether new energy vehicles can be industrialized in the future depends on three key factors: the maturity of key technologies of batteries and complete vehicles, the sales price of complete vehicles, and the convenience of charging.Please check:https://www.aminobattery.com/lithium-battery/
Therefore, in the national 13th five-year electric vehicle industry development plan, strengthen the research and development of next-generation batteries, motors and electronic control technologies; in the field of power lithium batteries, strengthen the development and application of new materials, and carry out forward-looking layouts in advance; focus on electric vehicles The research and development of automobile drive technology attaches great importance to the application of new materials in electric vehicles; the further integration of electrification, lightweight and intelligence of automobiles has become the core of future industrial development.